My Autobiography: David Balleza K(C)atague

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

The Global Economy in 2026

This posting is inspired from the latest Fareed Zakaria GPS TV Show.

The Global Economy in 2026: Uncertainty, Opportunity, and the AI Question

On a recent Sunday episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS, Fareed sat down with Ruchir Sharma of Breakout Capital to look ahead at the global economy in 2026. Their conversation captured the uneasy mood of our time: cautious optimism tempered by deep uncertainty.

Two powerful forces framed the discussion rising tariffs and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence. Together, they are reshaping markets, national strategies, and investor psychology.

Tariffs and the Return of Economic Nationalism

One of Sharma’s central points was that tariffs are no longer a temporary negotiating tactic; they are becoming a permanent feature of the global economy. From the U.S. to China to Europe, governments are prioritizing domestic resilience over global efficiency.

This shift marks a clear departure from the free-trade consensus that defined much of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. While tariffs may protect certain industries and jobs in the short term, they also inject uncertainty into supply chains, raise costs for consumers, and slow global growth.

For 2026, Sharma expects a world economy that is more fragmented, not collapsing, but less synchronized. Growth will likely continue, though unevenly, with emerging markets that manage debt well and avoid political instability outperforming those that do not.

AI: Productivity Boom or Investment Bubble?

Artificial intelligence dominated the more hopeful and more anxious part of the discussion. On one hand, Sharma acknowledged AI’s enormous potential to boost productivity, especially in fields like logistics, medicine, finance, and manufacturing. Over time, these gains could help offset aging populations and slowing labor growth in many countries.

But he also sounded a familiar warning: investors may be running ahead of reality.

The rush of capital into AI-related companies echoes past moments of technological exuberance, the dot-com era comes to mind. While AI will undoubtedly transform the economy, not every company labeled “AI-powered” will survive, and valuations may be getting ahead of proven profits.

In 2026, Sharma expects a sorting process: real innovators will separate from hype-driven ventures. Volatility, he suggests, is not a sign of failure but a natural part of technological revolutions.

A World Adjusting, Not Collapsing

Perhaps the most important takeaway from the conversation was its balance. This was not a forecast of doom, nor a promise of effortless growth. Instead, Sharma described a world economy learning to live with higher interest rates, geopolitical tension, and faster technological change.

The era of easy money is over. Discipline, adaptability, and long-term thinking will matter more than ever for governments, businesses, and investors alike.

A Personal Reflection

Watching this discussion, I was reminded that economic change is rarely neat or predictable. Having lived through multiple cycles postwar rebuilding, globalization, deregulation, and now re-fragmentation, I’ve learned that resilience often matters more than forecasts.

For younger generations, AI may feel like an overwhelming force. For older ones, tariffs and trade wars may feel like history repeating itself. Both perspectives are valid. What matters is remembering that economies are human creations, shaped by choices, values, and priorities, not just numbers on a screen.

As we move into 2026, uncertainty may be the defining feature of the global economy. But uncertainty also creates space for wisdom, restraint, and renewal.

May we face the coming year with clear eyes, steady hands, and the patience that comes from experience.

Meanwhile, here's the AI Overview on this topic

While global growth is projected to slow slightly to approximately 3.1% (down from 3.2% in 2025), a massive AI-driven capital expenditure cycle is acting as a critical buffer, particularly for the U.S. and emerging Asian markets.

Economic Outlook and Regional Trends

Major financial institutions project a resilient but cooling global environment as the effects of 2025's tariff shocks and policy shifts continue to manifest.

Global Growth: The IMF and OECD forecast a modest slowdown, with global real GDP growth expected between 2.9% and 3.1%.
United States: Growth is projected to land between 1.5% and 2.3%. This is supported by an "AI tailwind" that may mask underlying economic softness in traditional sectors.
China: Growth is expected to ease to roughly 4.4%–4.7% as fiscal stimulus fades and the 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes "new quality productive forces" like AI and quantum computing over raw expansion.
Eurozone: Growth remains subdued, projected at 1.0%–1.2%, as the region faces higher trade frictions and limited AI investment compared to the U.S. and China.

The "AI Question": Boom or Bubble?

2026 is viewed as the "year of AI reckoning," shifting from hype to real-world deployment.

The Capex Cycle: AI infrastructure spending has reached unprecedented levels, dwarfing the 1990s telecom boom. Just four tech giants—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—spent over $337 billion in 2025 alone, a trend continuing into 2026.
Productivity vs. Earnings: Markets are debating whether AI will deliver a "non-inflationary boom" through productivity gains or if companies will fail to generate the earnings implied by current valuations.
Bubble Concerns: While some warn of an "AI bubble" that could trigger a market correction if ROI remains mixed, most analysts believe valuations remain below 1990s dot-com levels.

Emerging Opportunities and Risks

Agentic AI: A major shift toward "agentic" systems—AI that can automate complex workflows rather than just answering questions—is expected to drive efficiency in finance, logistics, and scientific research.
Quantum Breakthroughs: 2026 is anticipated as a turning point where quantum systems begin to outperform classical computers in narrow domains like drug discovery and financial optimization.
Key Risks: Persistent inflation above 2% targets, "deeply disruptive" trade and tariff policies, and high global indebtedness remain the primary threats to stability.
Meanwhile, My photo of the Day- Clouds over Mt Fuji, Japan
Finally, here's the top five News of the Day:
1. Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro captured by US and appears in New York court
Maduro and his wife were brought before a federal court in New York, pleading not guilty in connection with charges following a U.S. operation in Venezuela. The dramatic international incident continues to spark global reactions. ABC News
2. Global pushback against U.S. comments on Greenland sovereignty
European leaders strongly rejected comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about a potential American takeover of Greenland, affirming that only Denmark and Greenland can decide the island’s future. Reuters
3. U.S. government faces looming funding deadline and possible shutdown
With current funding set to expire on January 30, lawmakers have roughly four weeks to pass remaining appropriations bills to avoid another federal government shutdown. The Washington Post
4. Venezuelan oil shunned by China amid export constraints
Chinese buyers passed on offers for Venezuelan crude this week as U.S. blockade measures tighten export constraints, impacting global energy markets. Bloomberg
5. Global markets rally to start 2026
World stock markets, including the UK’s FTSE 100, hit record highs as investors respond to optimism over monetary policy, corporate earnings, and continued AI-driven growth momentum. theguardian.com

Monday, January 5, 2026

Reflections on the Feast of Epiphany

Yesterday was the Feast of Epiphany, Feast of the Three Kings or Magi in the Roman Catholic Calendar. It was the end of the Christmas Season in the Philippines. This article is inspired after hearing the sermon of the Priest from The TV Sunday Mass, I viewed yesterday, January 4, 2026.

Epiphany: A Journey Guided by Light

Yesterday marks the Feast of Epiphany, known in the Christian tradition as the Feast of the Three Kings or the Magi. In the Philippines, it also gently closes the long and beloved Christmas season, one that begins as early as September and ends not with fireworks, but with reflection.

At its heart, Epiphany is a story about a journey.

The Magi were not kings in the political sense, but seekers, astronomers, scholars, travelers from distant lands. They followed a star not because they were told to, but because they were curious, attentive, and open to wonder. Their journey was long, uncertain, and required courage. The star did not explain everything. It simply invited them to walk forward.

This theme of seeking resonates far beyond Christianity.

In Judaism, the tradition of seeking wisdom, hokhmah runs deep, expressed through study, questioning, and ethical living. In Islam, the idea of hidayah, or divine guidance, emphasizes attentiveness to signs in the world and humility before truth. In all great traditions, there is respect for those who search sincerely, who travel inward and outward in pursuit of meaning.

The Magi brought gifts, gold, frankincense, and myrrh. These were not random offerings but symbols: honor, reverence, and an acknowledgment of human vulnerability. Across cultures and faiths, gift-giving has always been less about material value and more about recognition, I see you; I honor your worth.

In the Philippines, Epiphany carries a particular tenderness. After weeks of celebration, family gatherings, and shared meals, this day signals a turning point. Decorations come down. Ordinary life resumes. Yet something lingers: a quiet hope that the light we followed during the holidays does not disappear, but moves within us.

For readers around the world, Christian, Muslim, Jewish, or otherwise the message of Epiphany is not about doctrine. It is about attention.

What stars are we following today? What truths invite us to travel beyond our comfort zones? What gifts, kindness, patience, understanding can we still offer one another in a world often darkened by fear and division?

The Magi returned home “by another way,” the story tells us. Perhaps that is the deepest wisdom of Epiphany: that sincere journeys change us. We may arrive at the same place, but we do not return the same people.

As the Christmas season ends in the Philippines, may its light continue, guiding our steps, softening our judgments, and reminding us that across nations and faiths, we are all travelers under the same sky.

May the stars we follow lead us not only forward, but toward one another.

Meanwhile, here's the AI Overview on the Above Topic:

The Feast of Epiphany, traditionally observed on January 6 or the following Sunday (January 4 in 2026), marks the "manifestation" of Jesus Christ to the world

. It serves as the climax of the Christmas season, transitioning from the private joy of the stable to the public revelation of God’s glory.

A reflection for the Epiphany of the Lord

Gospel Reflection: Feast of the Epiphany

Key Spiritual Reflections

Universality of Salvation: The visit of the Magi—who were non-Jewish "outsiders"—symbolizes that Christ did not come for one group alone, but as a savior for all nations and ethnicities.
The Journey of Faith: Like the Magi who followed a star through uncertainty, reflections for 2026 emphasize the "sacred pilgrimage" of the spiritual life. This involves seeking truth even when the path is long and the destination is unexpected—finding a king in a humble manger rather than a palace.
Response to the Light: Epiphany is often called the "Feast of Lights". Modern reflections suggest that believers are called to be "phosphors" (light-bearers), reflecting Christ’s love to others who are struggling through "dark" times.
Internal Transformation: The Magi’s return "by another way" is frequently viewed as a metaphor for spiritual conversion. Encountering the divine should change one's direction in life, leading away from old habits and toward a new path of grace.
Inward vs. Outward Gifts: While the Magi brought gold, frankincense, and myrrh, 2026 reflections encourage offering "inward gifts" such as mercy, advocacy for justice, and acts of service.

Comparison of Eastern and Western Perspectives

Feature	Western Tradition (Catholic/Protestant)	Eastern Tradition (Orthodox)
Primary Event	Visit of the Magi (Three Kings)	Baptism of Jesus in the Jordan
Focus	Manifestation to the Gentiles	Theophany (Manifestation of the Trinity)
Theme	Following the Star/Giving gifts	Revelation of Christ’s divinity and public mission

Practical Observances for 2026

Chalking the Door: A traditional blessing where "20 + C + M + B + 26" is written above the home's entrance, representing the year and the names of the Magi (Caspar, Melchior, Balthasar), while also abbreviating the Latin Christus Mansionem Benedicat ("May Christ bless this house").
Family Devotions: Resources like The Quest offer daily virtue-based reflections to help families conclude the season with spiritual offerings.
King’s Cake: Many cultures share a "Galette des Rois" containing a hidden figurine; the person who finds it is "crowned" for the day, celebrating the joy of the royal manifestation.
Meanwhile, here are the top five news of the Day

U.S. captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in major military operation — U.S. forces carried out a strike in Venezuela, capturing Maduro and flying him to the United States as he faces federal charges; China condemns the move and global tensions rise. Reuters+1

President Trump signals possibility of further military actions — Trump said the U.S. could conduct additional strikes if Venezuela does not comply, underscoring ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Axios

International uproar over U.S. statements on Greenland sovereignty — Trump’s remarks about the strategic importance of Greenland sparked pushback from Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and European governments. The Guardian

CES 2026 tech expo underway with major product reveals — The big annual technology show in Las Vegas is bringing new innovations and hardware announcements from leading manufacturers. TechRadar

Major cultural and arts leadership news — Lina Ghotmeh has been selected to lead the expansion of Qatar’s Mathaf Museum of Modern Art, marking a significant development in the global arts world. ArtAsiaPacific

My Photo of the Day:

My Two Great Grand Sons_ Beau David and Graham Everett

Highlights of My Professional Career

In my more than 40 years of professional career, I have experienced both working rank and file, as well as supervising the work of subordinates. I have worked in four private firms and the Federal Government, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), where I retired. I enjoyed the challenges and difficulties of both types of job situations. This is the highlights of my work experience story.

My first job after completing my doctorate degree was a Chemist for Chemagro Corporation in Kansas City, Missouri. It was a subsidiary of Bayer Corporation, a German conglomerate. I worked for the analytical chemistry department comprised of about fifty people; half that number was either chemists or biologists. My specific task was to develop analytical methods for the detection of pesticide residues in plant and animal tissues. I worked on my own, similar to six other bench chemists, and we all reported to the same supervisor.

The firm sponsored my visa conversion from a student to a permanent resident, and I was able to legally work and reside in the United States with my family. The company generously took care of its employees. At the end of each successful year, everyone received a 13th month salary bonus. The employees and their families celebrated wonderful annual Christmas parties in a downtown Kansas City hotel, with dancing and free drinks for the whole night.

Inasmuch as I enjoyed and loved working for Chemagro for five years, I found a new job which offered a substantially higher pay. Due to my exemplary work performance, my supervisor preferred and lobbied for me to stay with the company. I had to turn him down because they could not match the package presented by my new employer. It was also a chance for me and my family to move and live in the US west coast, where the mild winter climate is bearable compared to the Midwest.

My next job was at the agricultural research division of Shell Development Company in Modesto, California. I was a Research Chemist, and again I worked individually, same as five other chemists who all reported to a supervisor. My specific duty was similar to my previous job. I worked for them for five years, until the company decided to get out of the pesticide business. They closed their research facility affecting the jobs of more than 200 employees.

My third industrial job was with the agricultural research division of Stauffer chemical company, located in Richmond, California. I was a Senior Research Chemist doing the same project as my two previous jobs. I worked for twelve continuous years for the company, with outstanding annual job performance. I became a Principal Research Chemist, the highest attainable non-supervisory position.

One day in 1986, my supervisor informed me that my job had been eliminated, and I had one day to vacate the facility. It was the most dreadful lay off experience in my life. I felt anger, sadness and humiliation to be dismissed from work with one day notice, after all the years of hard work invested for the company. This was an unforgettable incident and was the gloomiest point in my professional career.
The company terminated sixty research employees, who were upset of the bad news.

One of the chemists was distressed and expressed his outrageous anger by threatening the company and its workers. He told his supervisor of his intention to bomb and burn down the laboratory. He was immediately escorted by the security staff out of the building and into his car. He was informed to leave behind his personal belongings; they will be mailed to his residence. He was warned never to show up again near the company premises or risk getting arrested.

My supervisor was kind and allowed me to take my time to pack up my belongings. It took me two days to clear up my workplace, after toiling for a long period in the same jobsite. We were provided clerical help and office space, in preparation to look for another job, such as updating our resumes, and using the computer and copy machine. We were given six weeks of separation pay plus benefits.

Fortunately, with the help of a friend who is a Church parishioner, I found another job thirty days after leaving Stauffer chemical company. He hired me as a senior research chemist and as a group leader with two technicians to supervise. It was in the same field as my expertise in my previous three jobs spanning the last twenty one years. My new employer was Chevron Chemical Company, and which was located in the same area as my former employer.

This job gave me the introduction and basic knowledge of managing the work of subordinates. I worked for Chevron Company for four and a half years. The company decided to consolidate their research facilities in Texas, and lay off all its research employees. This time I had enough distress and agony from working, and eventually getting laid off from several private companies. To avoid going through any more miserable layoffs, I made a vow that I would never again work for a private company.

In my work experiences, there were noticeable and unavoidable jobsite occurrences. One can never miss the office romantic relationships between co-workers, both illicit and permitted. Though it was frowned upon, there was a boss and staff relationship, which was used as a ploy to get ahead in the company. Some relationships had chemistry, no pun intended, but some never worked out. Oftentimes, there was a sense of distrust among bench chemists for some workers who unjustly obtained preferred work assignments.

Some employees resorted to bribing superiors to get special privileges, such as being able to attend choice conferences and meetings in exciting venues or locations. Likewise, politics was always present at the worksites. It was during an era when various forms of harassment, equal opportunity and discrimination laws were not yet enforced in the workplace. Occasionally, an unexpected chemical explosion happens in a laboratory setting, where luckily no one got seriously hurt.

In the three private companies I worked for, I was able to publish scientific journals for some of the research studies and analytical methods which I developed for the respective companies of Chemagro, Shell Development and Stauffer.

After deciding and making a vow to avoid working in the private sector, I made my new goal which was either to work for the state of California, or the Federal government in Washington, D.C. Four months after I lost my job in Chevron, I was lucky and joyful to be hired by the Food and Drug Administration as a review chemist in the fall of 1990.

In 1994 I was promoted as an Expert Research Chemist with a GS-14 rating. My expertise was on Anti-malarial and Anti-parasitic drug products. In 1997, I was again deservingly promoted to Chemistry team leader, supervising the work of six Chemistry reviewers including five with doctorate degrees.

As team leader, I was responsible for prioritizing, assigning, and assuring the technical accuracy of all chemistry, manufacturing and control issues for all new drug applications submitted to the Division of Anti-Infective Drug Products, Center of New Drugs.

It was part of my responsibility to give advice, instruct and promote high morale and teamwork in my group. My work in the FDA is confidential, until the drug patent on the products I worked on has expired. There are manufacturing supplements that I have approved that are now open for the public in the Internet.

In 1998, I won the Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) Award. The citation reads, “For outstanding accomplishments in fostering the objectives of the EEO Program by hiring minorities and encouraging their professional growth while providing excellent leadership.” I have received numerous certificates of appreciation, awards in leadership and communications, commendation for teamwork and excellence in the accomplishment of the FDA mission. I have also received several letters of appreciation from private industry for my review work.

There are many good things working as rank and file while enjoying doing one’s job individually. It is a humbling, satisfying and productive experience, if one can work in harmony with one’s immediate supervisor. Working individually develops one’s skills in goal setting and scheduling. But in general, the financial rewards are less than a person who has supervisory responsibilities.

Managing the work of others has its challenges. Moreover, it develops one’s skill in handling and developing people, and the compensation rewards and benefits are better. Due to additional duties, responsibilities and leadership, supervisory work can be more stressful than working as a subordinate. However, supervisory jobs give one more personal growth and satisfaction, based on my personal experience. My work in FDA as a team leader managing the work of six scientists had been the happiest and rewarding work experience in my career in Chemistry. You might also like: